The Little ‘Christmas’ Movie That Could

Comparing “Red One” to “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” offers a snapshot of modern Hollywood.

The former features A-list stars (Dwayne Johnson, Chris Evans), a massive budget ($250 million) and the support of a major streamer (Amazon).

The latter? Underrated performers (Judy Greer, Pete Holmes), a modest budget ($10 million) and source material that doesn’t scream, “franchise!”

Guess which one has already made its money back?

“The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” came in sixth place over the competitive box office weekend – Glicked is no Barbenheimer, but it’s not too shabby, either. The PG-rated “Pageant” brought in $3.5 million in its third weekend.

That doesn’t sound impressive on paper, but two notes beg to differ.

The film shed 741 theaters yet fell just 33.4 percent from the previous week, an impressive “hold” in box office speak. Plus, those sales brought the film’s U.S. box office bounty to $25.5 million.

“Red One,” meanwhile, yielded think pieces from Variety where experts explain why even in our streaming era the film’s box office losses sting.

“Netflix made these kinds of movies when they first entered the theatrical business, but they don’t anymore. Apple has made them too, and they are cutting back,” says David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research.

The film earned $13 million in its second week for a nearly 60 percent fall. That’s bad for a Christmas movie in theaters this time of year.

Maybe hiring a jacked-up Santa was a mistake?

New look at Dwayne Johnson and J.K. Simmons in ‘RED ONE’

(Via: @Fandango) pic.twitter.com/nyCh6kcJ8C

— The Hollywood Handle (@HollywoodHandle) November 4, 2024

The film’s $52 million U.S. total is boosted by $64 million in international sales, but combining the two still comes cartoonishly short of its bloated budget. Amazon will make some hay from the film once it hits streaming (maybe much sooner than expected?) but it’s still a financial mess.

Meanwhile, “Pageant” offers sweet nostalgia, a charming redemption arc and the kind of gentle laughs that plays well around the holidays.

RELATED: ‘PAGEANT’ PRODUCER SAYS FILM PUT CHRIST BACK INTO CHRISTMAS

The box office waters will get even choppier for “Red One” this weekend.

“Moana 2” is expected to blow past the competition, while the just-released “Wicked” should have serious legs. The film earned solid initial reviews, packs some Oscar buzz and earned an “A” rating from CinemaScore. That latter quizzes first-weekend audiences about the newest titles.

The film’s 97 percent “fresh” audience rating at Rotten Tomatoes will spark serious word-of-mouth movement.

“Pageant” will add a few million to its tally before its theatrical release winds down. The film’s box office work is already done. The low-budget charmer did what “Red One” couldn’t – stuff its studio’s stocking with profits.

Call it a Christmas miracle.